Pete Alonso’s miscalculation of the free-agent market is not worthy of condemnation. Yet.
Alonso agreed Wednesday night to a two-year, $54 million guarantee to return to the New York Mets, according to sources briefed on his negotiations. He could end up like three other Scott Boras clients who opted out of short-term deals after one year, then struck belated free-agent riches.
But while Alonso and Boras can point to Carlos Correa, Blake Snell and Matt Chapman as examples of how the strategy can work, Jordan Montgomery did not succeed with the same blueprint. To this point, Cody Bellinger has not, either.
If Alonso fails to rebound from his career-worst 2024 season, his problem if he opts out will be the same one he experienced this winter. His power is elite, but he is a first baseman and largely one-dimensional, offering little defensive or base-running value. A player can only receive a qualifying offer once, so at least Alonso would not again be burdened by draft-pick compensation. But a year from now he will be preparing for his age-31 season, and teams likely will remain hesitant to sign him long-term.
Snell is a top starting pitcher, Correa a difference-making shortstop, Chapman a brilliant defender. Alonso, by approximating the 40-homer, .869 OPS campaign he produced in 2022, would be justified in asking for a six-year deal. First baseman Christian Walker in December landed a three-year, $60 million free-agent contract with the Houston Astros, and he turns 34 on March 28. But when assessing players’ values, clubs are all about trend lines. And Alonso’s aren’t good.
Few would have bet Walker would secure a larger guarantee than Alonso, but Walker has won three straight Gold Gloves and his OPS+ figures the past three seasons were a fairly consistent 25, 22 and 21 percent above league average. Alonso’s OPS+ marks were 46, 23 and 23 percent above.
Alonso is a homegrown star. He hit one of the most memorable home runs in Mets history in the Wild-Card Round against the Milwaukee Brewers. But David Stearns, the Mets’ exceedingly rational general manager, and even Steve Cohen, their more impulsive billionaire owner, refused to be swayed by emotion.
In June 2023, Alonso reportedly turned down a seven-year, $158 million offer under his previous agency, Apex Baseball, and the Mets’ previous GM, Billy Eppler. The offer covered his final year of arbitration, which turned out to be $20.5 million. The six free-agent years would have been worth $137.5 million.
While Alonso’s decision might appear foolish in retrospect, he was, at the time, the major-league leader in home runs the previous five seasons, and by a considerable margin. Perhaps he would not have topped Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162 million free-agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, which contains significant deferrals (Alonso’s new agreement with the Mets has none). But Alonso seemed a reasonable bet to get close to Freeman, if not beyond.
Surely that was Alonso’s thinking when he hired Boras after the 2023 season, and Boras’ thinking, too. But Alonso regressed in his platform year, hitting a career-low 34 home runs that still tied him for 12th in the majors. At that point, his likely goal of $200 million became decidedly unrealistic, if it was ever possible at all.
Boras has negotiated three of the five largest free-agent contracts this offseason, including his personal Mona Lisa, Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets. Chapman’s six-year, $151 million extension with the San Francisco Giants ranks as the winter’s sixth-largest deal. But with Alonso, Boras settled for one of his self-described “bridge” contracts. Another of his big free agents, third baseman Alex Bregman, could be headed for the same fate.
Alonso’s agreement with the Mets includes a $10 million signing bonus and $30 million in overall income in 2025, according to sources, just below Miguel Cabrera’s record $31 million average annual value for a first baseman. Alonso also turned down a three-year, $71 million offer from the Mets with two opt-outs, preferring the higher salaries in his two-year deal. Again, it all could work out. But so much will hinge on how Alonso performs.
The free-agent market at first base next offseason could include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who intends to cut off extension talks with the Toronto Blue Jays on Feb. 18, the date of the team’s first full-squad workout. Guerrero, who turns 26 on March 16, is a better pure hitter than Alonso and more than four years younger. Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Josh Naylor, also eligible for free agency, is not as accomplished as Alonso, but 2 1/2 years younger.
The Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and New York Yankees are among the teams that could be in the market for a first baseman, along with the Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians and others. But most of those clubs also were in the market at the position this offseason. And with the exception of the Blue Jays, all appeared to shun Alonso.
Alonso’s return to the Mets seemed inevitable. He clearly did not want to sign with the Jays. But just as Boras got practically everything he desired from the Mets for Soto, the Mets got almost everything they desired with Alonso. True, Alonso’s $30 million salary in 2025 will push the Mets above the highest luxury tax threshold. Factoring in the accompanying penalty, he effectively will cost the team approximately $60 million. But the deal is for a maximum of two years. And the Mets’ lineup will be even more potent with Alonso hitting behind Soto.
Alonso did not lose entirely, ending up with an above-market salary for 2025 and the chance to return to free agency as quickly as possible. To beat the Mets’ initial extension offer next offseason, he would need to sign a five-year contract for more than $107.5 million. Not impossible, especially if he has a big year. But considering the frustration he experienced in his first crack at the open market, not all that likely, either.
(Photo of Pete Alonso: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)